Ouch. Labour will have winced when they saw this week’s ICM poll which has the Conservatives up six points and now a clear four ahead of Labour territory. That’s very close to being “majority” numbers. But within usual polling “margin of error” it’s not as exciting as all that. Could easily be a blip which corrects next week.
Much more interesting is the long-term fall in UKIP polling. Many have said that as the General Election looms the Purple People Eater would lose it’s mojo as voters begin focusing on who will run the country and who are just a sorry mess of a party apparently dominated by bigots, racists and conspiracy theorists.
In this poll UKIP drop to 9% – their lowest rating in over a year. When you factor in the first-past-the-post system and the natural squeeze by the serious parties it all suggests a pretty grim outcome for Farage’s “pint of beer and a fag” collective. People’s Army begins to look a bit like “Crazy People’s Damp Squib.”
UKIP will respond by ramping up their usual arrogance, shout factor and obligatory fury. More and more people will be called “bien pensant” and “liblabcon.” Wider and wider swathes will be castigated as “the establishment.” Until it’s just Farage, Carswell and some blokes in black leather uniforms proclaiming: “Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Fuhrer” to an audience of six angry white men and a cat.
With a bit of luck.